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Another Record for H-D

14K views 50 replies 28 participants last post by  seruzawa 
#1 ·
Attaboy Harley! I bought HDI in 87' and have held through 5 splits. Rags to riches baby! Anybody know what bikes they plan to build in their new York factory? Yea, and before all you crotch rocket pilots start dissen H-D, just remember that we bikers need to stick together since we only make up around 1% of the population. Divided it only looks worse. Speaking of 1%, that sure leaves alot of ceiling for growth. The sky is the limit if we only can get more of these pussies to mount a motorcyle. The certainly have no idea what they are missing.
 
#27 ·
Their motorcycle production from 2002 to 2003 will be increased 10%. The 2003 targeted production was increased an extra 1000 motorcycles, due to even better than expected sales. Nowhere does it say that the increase of 289,000 to 290,000 is a 10% increase. It takes a mind like yours to mess that one up. Try reading a little more carefully.
 
#28 ·
Re: As a H-D stockholder I thank you.

Well,,, I was bored, what can I say. Funny thing is we've all seen the type, talking smack all day long, Harley sucks this and ****in' garbage that, until one day look who rolls up on his new Wide Glide, with HD leather coat, HD leather chaps, HD leather finger gloves, HD engineer boots, HD doo-rag and a beanie, It's Sonny KPaul out to kick some jap ass!!!
 
#29 ·
We did get some BMW sales and profit figures out there. Japanese companies are different. They are diversified corporations that make many products, and finding profits of one division are rarer than hen's teeth. I tried to find Honda's North American motorcycle balance sheets for many months. If you can find one let me know. I can't
 
#30 ·
One more thought. Try to introduce kids to motorcycling; brothers, nephews, sons, and the girls of course, etc... Their interests may be different now than yours (Motocross, Moto X, Speedway whatever) but I'd bet alot of the Motorcyclists on the road today started out on dirtbikes and minibikes. I believe many worthy lessons in life can be learned with their exposure to our in-common passion. Not everyone is "cut out" to ride, for various reasons but I think it would be to all riders benefit for the sport to grow. Kids seem more willing to try new things than most adults, that's all it took for me.
 
#31 ·
The increase in production has nothing to do with increased retail sales... it has to do with sales from the factory to dealers.



H-D stock has been hurt a bit recently by concerns over rising retail inventories. Wall Street was also concerned about the slowing growth of HD revenue. Their production of bikes has increased steadily as they've made investments in new factories and manufacturing technology. This modest 1000 bike increase was probably a response to this concern.



I'd imagine many of the changes to the York factory are intended to increase their manufacturing efficiency and lower cost, which also won't hurt them long-term.



I also wonder if their overseas sales have dropped. The economies of their major export markets are much worse than the U.S. economy.



 
#32 ·
Good one

LOL Can you do wheelies on that thing? Hey I am not a Poser. If it can't do the 1/4 in less than 11 seconds I am not interested in it. Actually the DynaGlideSport is a nice bike. Is that what you have? The Road Kings and Sportsers I don't like. But I like the FXDX and FatBoy.
 
#39 ·
I'm glad Harley is doing well. I don't know too much about the sportbike-cruiser catfight, because I agree we have more in common than we have that separates us. Unfortunately, it has been my experience that it is the Harley riders who refuse to wave back or talk to those of us who don't belong to their "exclusive club." Riders of other makes of cruisers seem as friendly as any other rider. What I call "real" Harley riders, i.e., those who have been on bikes for years, seem quite friendly. It's the new breed of rubbie Harley rider that is the most extreme in their exclusion of the rest of us.



Vlad
 
#40 ·
Good news bad news for H-D. Even though revenue is up for the manufacturer, U.S. registrations were down 3% over last year. The "overly cautious" UBS Warburg downgraded HDI to Neutral and the earlier spike in stock price dropped today to a 3.5% loss over Wednesday's close.



I thought the most important revenue increase was that of parts/acccessories, which jumped up 22%. EBITDA numbers looked fairly strong, accomodating for the increase in production.



One thing I've noticed in the past couple of years at their dealerships: There are a lot more motorcycles on the floor than I remember from a few years ago. Almost every model is represented, even at the smaller dealers. Also, most of the dealers I've spoken to in SoCal have started to drop or have dropped completely, the standard MSRP Uplift that had become almost commonplace a few years ago.



HD's response to the decline in registrations is untimely bad weather in Q1, perhaps they're right...



...however, I went into a HD dealer a few weekends ago and counted 12 (counted 'em myself) VRODs on the sales floor...



Don't even get me started on the horrible sales representation of Buells.

 
#41 ·
Its funny---HD responded to non HD riders and MC mags in an attempt to attract new riders by buying Buell and developing the VROD,.They both are slow sellers yet the traditional bikes that the MC elite thumb their noses at are selling in incredible numbers(290000!!----in 1985 they sold 36000).Yes their stock has dropped a bit but check the P/E ratio----its not bad somewhere around 20:1. let me be like KPAUl and make a prediction.....HD will sell fewer bikes next year due to a letdown after the 100 anniversary year.Naysayers like those on this site will trumpet the downfall of HD while HD still makes good profits.....stock prices will drop BUY !!!!!! Harley will still sell over 200000 bikes next year(an unbelievable number 10 years ago),sales will start rising again as dealers stop price gouging and stock will do well.HD will be healthy for awhile.
 
#42 ·
In his defense...

I can't belive who's "rescue" I'm coming to, but c'mon seruzawa, really, Man.

You know that anyone with half-a-ball can get the Ninja for a good bit less than that. Especially if they waited until say, February or March of '02 when the dealer was desperate.

And it's also entirely reasonable to assume that the grey ponytail brotherhood paid well in excess of the 13,885 list for heir FXDX. Try $15,500 to $17k. (At least here in Atlanta, where H-D is THE bike of choice.)

It wouldn't be hard to see how the H-D guy would've lost as much dollar value as your ninja guy (using your NADA values). Which means that our friend The Crotch Rocketeer over there lost more value as a percentage of total dollars invested, but paid a lot less monthly.

And the most important point: that NADA values never translate to trade-in value.

In other words, I think the H-D resale value is largely a myth these days. I recently got bit on the butt by it, let me tell you.
 
#45 ·
Not bad, but let me go further...



As supply (from new production and private used bike sales) has increased, demand has remained steady (at a level that has never been met, so has never been tested.)



The used -Harley market is showing signs of softness already. After the 100th Anniv. glut, dealers will have less room to mark the new bikes up. So as price-gouging for new bikes becomes a thing of the past, it will push used-bike prices down as well, starting the end to the "reasale magic" of Harleys.



*I* predict that while the Factory will remain strong, (even if a slowdown for 1-3 years ensues), what we will see is a major shakeout in the dealer network, faster and harder than the AMF years. Why? Because the AMF slowdown was corporate at its source. This will be market-driven, and the market is much less forgiving.



My H-D dealer (still great folks even if I sold my Road King, I still ride with a couple of them) says that the V-Rod is to Harley what the electric-car mandate is to the Big Three Auto Makers. It is a fast-replicating, slow-selling albatros. They sell them for retail as soon as they get them in. Traditional (read: experienced) Harley riders still buy displacement, and the V-Rod doesn't have much. To many of these folks, there is a strong appeal to mechanical simplicity, whether they work on their own bikes or not. The V-Rod is a dark cauldron to them.



But, yeah, I'd really like to see more money put into Buell as well.
 
#46 ·
good post...its nice to get reasonable dialogue regarding HD.I agree with what you say. Harley will face some tough decisions as to where to put their investments as they try to retain their traditional customers while attracting the younger riders coming from a MX/sportbike background.
 
#47 ·
Re: In his defense...

Next time you are feeling "bit", contact me and we can work out a price for any Harley you own. I'm sure if somebody "bit" you it's because you were in a hurry, and they saw you coming. If anyone you know is selling at well below "myth" prices, please don't hesitate to contact me as I have cash in hand.
 
#49 ·
Re: Hey you are the Raider fan.

I was just kidding you about the Raider thing. I just don't see where any evidence exists that the cruiser market will slow.

Your "predictions" are based more on personal bias rather than facts. I'll bet you'll find the buyers of naked bikes are guys in their 40s rather than young kids eschewing a cruiser purchase.

Ask your 20-something friends at school what the would buy if cost was no object and I'll bet you'll get a surprising set of answers.
 
#50 ·
Re: In his defense...

Please, please, please! Save yourself! don't be like me and get sucked into KPaulKook's Entropic Universe of Circular Logic. If you don't you'll find yourself quoting "facts" and stats from website's and magazines in a ridiculous attempt to "win" an internet argument rather than dealing with the real world.

Don't let this happen to you. It's too late for me..... I'm sinking..........
 
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