Re: Not lame at all on both counts.
Sorry, can't agree. Given the conditions, geograhical features, and the highly defensible fortified positions of the flawed-but-still formidable Atlantic Wall, the Normandy invasion was no sure thing. Storming unprotected over an open beach with gun implacements reigning fire from high on the bluffs was a dangerous proposition no matter what.
The Germans had no one to blame but themselves for their lack of air power. They sqandered their air crews and equipment. The fact that they resorted to conscripting conquered Russians, Poles and Frenchmen (you forgot the French) because much of their better forces were mired in the disaster that was the Eastern Front, to me, seems to underscore a certain type of incompetence.
As much as you deride the "popular belief of Gringos and Limeys," there is also a certain mythology that has grown around the German military of WWII. For example, Rommel, was, in large part, a product of propaganda. His superiors viewed him as an excellent tactician, but impulsive and terrible with logisitics. This often undermined his "brilliance." In fact, he was soundly defeated in N. Africa, despite having far superior equipment and defensive advantages. Many members of the General Staff were sycophants or politicians. The command structure throughout much of the war was a mess. Field commanders were also not immune to mistakes, some of which contributed to the failures in Russia. (Contrary to popular belief, Hitler did not make all of those decisions.) And the Germans' military intelligence services were almost laughable.
Let's also give some credit to the Allies for the Herculean task of the D-Day invasion (amongst many other things.) The Mulberry harbors alone were a nearly incomprehensible feat, much less the planning and counter-intelligence that preceded June 6th.
And speculating about what could of happened teaches us nothing really about what did happen. England would have never agreed to peace. And even if the Germans had won the war, I doubt they would have been able to secure the whole of Europe and Russia by force for too long.
Forgive me, I'm not saying that the German military was ineffective, just that a clear asertation that they were a superior military force is not supportable. They didn't lose the war because they were better.