I assume you meant 2'04.226 for Rossi's 2002 qualifying time.
It does seem that the track is somewhat slower this year, but the differences in bikes makes it hard to say how much of the time is due to that.
In addition to Rossi, Ukawa also improved his time -- 0.782 sec under his 2002 Q-time. Barros made exactly the same improvement, but of course his last year time was on a Honda 2-stroke so it is hard to compare.
Sete seems to have made the biggest gain (1.361 sec) but that is comparing an early 2002 Suzuki to a 2003 Honda RVC.
Capi, on the same 2-stroke was faster last year than he was with the Ducati this year. Most other riders, including Biaggi were also unable to match their 2002 times, which supports the hypothisis that the track is considerably slower now.
Are you ready with your race-day predictions?
I think you might need to make two seperate predictions -- one if it is wet (not unlikely) and another in the dry.
If the track stays dry, I don't pick Barros to win, and maybe not even make the podium -- the track is not a hard-braking track, so his strongest skill will be less valuable. In the wet, I think he would likely be near the front.
I'd probably have to go with Rossi for the win either wet or dry, but behind him the results are highly dependant on track moisture. If it is wet, I could see Sete and maybe KRJR right up there with Rossi and Barros. Edwards is also great in the rain, although I don't think he has a lot of rain time on the Cube, so that is a question mark.
If it is dry, I think Kato and Ukawa will right up near the front. Both are very good, on a track that they know well, and in front of home crowd. They will be tough to beat.
Colin could be a surprise in either wet or dry. He has a good track record from the 8-hours he has done there. His times at the test were hampered by the need to fit the old stiffer swingarm. (I understand that the last 2 tests had been done with the new one, which works much better. The one he was using was destroyed in his crash at Barcalona, and the replacement had a construction defect). Because of that, we don't really have a good indication of how good the Cube will be for Suzuka.
Capi qualified second fastest there last year, so I expected him to do better. Not sure if it is a problem he or the bike was having, or possibly if the Ducati is just not ideally suited to the track. From a recent interview with Ukawa, the track needs to be attacked differently than the European tracks -- it has mostly sweeping linked turns where maintaining mid-corner speed and precise lines work better than the toss it sideways and smoke out of the turn style that seems to work for the stop and go European circuits.
Can't wait
Bob