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The sky is falling, the sky is falling. Tell me no one is suprised. It's been telegraphed for over a year.
 

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It's an industry wide down turn. HD and BMW, Ducati etc are going to be hurt more because they try to cater to an "exclusive" market. The Japanese probably won't fall as far because they have a much more diversified product line in Watercraft, ATV's, Generators, Dirt Bikes as well as cruisers and sport bikes with more low dollar offerings in each catagory.

No doubt the whole recreational vehicle industry will take a hit from high end bikes to RV's to boats and everything else. When the economy cools discretionary spending is the first to stop. Harley has set themselves up for a double shot because their target demographic is aging as well. I don't know how many younger people are going to pony up for whats percieved as dads bike in the first place when the Asian manufacturers are offering more performance and better percieved quality at a lower price, specially for used bikes.
You may remove Ducati from the mix. Sales of new bikes are up, again. The 1098 and HM are a smashing success and the new 848 will be, as well. They may be small compared to HD, BMW, and Piaggio (Vespa, Aprilia and Guzzi holdings) but they have excellent management in place, right now. As long as they keep the small company attitude they should keep positive cash flow. Otherwise I agree with your assessment...
 
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