Harley Financials...
I think its more that 2003 will be a great year for HD (the 100th anniversary and all) spurring sales. But beyond that, they are starting to hit saturation...
Old guys buy harleys. Young guys generally don't. Old guys can afford Harleys. Young guys generally can't. Harley has been worried about this for years, but...
The V-rod is a start at attracting a younger market with some real (late 20th century) engineering, but it is fugly and if it really caught on, the Japanese could blow it away: just imagine an RC51/TL1000 powered cruiser, an updated V-max, or a chromed-up Busa/ZX12R engine in a cruiser chassis!
Just imagine the marketing: 175 Horsepower of Cruiser Muscle... You can just feel HD cringe at that idea.
The HD solution to the demographic bubble, Buell, is being killed with neglect. Shipments for Buell are up this year, but last year it was pretty much only the Blast, with so many leftover Cyclones that they stopped the production.
The Firebolt seems a nice idea, but damn that engine sucks. And a V-rod powered 'Bolt isn't going to be much better, what it makes up for in power, it's going to lose in compactness, and the V-rod engine wasn't designed to be light.
That Buell was not even told about the V-rod during its development (and could have therefore influenced the motor to be much better for sportbike as well as cruiser purposes) shows just how much care HD is really giving the Buell line.
Harley will remain a strong company, but PE's of 22+ is overvalued compared to Honda's 6, especially since both companies are mature and in a mature market.