Oh yes, let the Harley haters spread the doom and gloom, because everyone knows that morons know more about the motorcycle industry than anyone at Harley and what they see on their weekend rides can be taken as gospel. Flame away..........
I know I only watch the stocks I own this close (and those I'm considering). I'd say yes as this was some timely news. Plus, nothing generates more posts on the MO forum than a good HD flame fest. Although the flamenest flamer no longer flames here.
Harley surpassed GM as the vehicle sales leader of the WORLD. So, is there any doubt that Harley is strong? NO. It was an accounting move that will pay in the last quarter. Summer sales will be strong but the 3rd quarter is always the winner for HD. Watch the numbers come in better than expected. I don't ride them, don't own stock but do respect the fact that they are a force in the vehicle sales world. If I had the cash it'd be a great time to pick up shares.
Its just amazing to me that HD will sell 329000 bikes...and folk are panicking. In 1985 they sold 36000....in 1995 they sold 105ooo. They have sold over 1.2 million bikes in last 5 years! This is just amazing to me.....where are they all going. ? I dont see how they can maintain this growth but even if sales were to actually dip(imagine the panic then) for a year or so,the company will still be strong. I predicted a dip after the 2003 anniversary year but was wrong....Im still thinking there has to be a dip eventually,but I think the immediate future is still looking good.
By the way,domestic sales of Buell have taken a dip the last 2 years(03 and 04) while foreign sales have increased.
iamz, No, I do not hold any shares or options on HDI. In fact, I have no vested interest whatsoever in what their stock price does.
However, as an NASD Series 7, 9, 10, 31, 63, and 65 licensed financial advisor, (now inactive, due to my choosing to leave the indiustry to pursue this career in motojournalism), I do feel qualified to dispense advice on the merits of reacting to market news. In my opinion you buy stock because you believe in that company. You hold that stock for a looooong time and try not to react to short-term news and public panics. If you want to day trade or try to otherwise "time" the market, you must be a much smarter investor than I am, because using old public info as a live trading tool just doesn't seem to work for anyone in the long term. -Sean
Exactly,they could have continued production rates and made 339000 units,but they would have been selling bikes in Sept at below MSRP,thus starting expectations for the future of below MSRP pricing. Better to sell 329000 at MSRP and sell another 330000 or so next year. They havent gotten where they are with bad business decisions.
The reason sales have not trailed off as of yet is because of the US public's current loose-money economic policy fueled by the Fed's policy of expanding money supply and foreign dollars pouring in hand over fist, driving the trade deficit and foreign prices up (BTW this is what's causing the outsourcing that everyone complains about, as a side effect.) This discourages savings and promotes higher time preferences. At some point the foreign banks, and the world population in general, will have had enough of unbacked fiat money, the leverage will be so high that people will no longer feel that the US is simply "too big to fail", and then Harley won't be the only one feeling the crunch.
Great advice. I've seen some of my friends get caught in the short-term day/week/month trader thing fad with disastrous results for them. Every time I bought stock because I believed in the products and/or company, like you suggested, I have done well.
Harley may be heading for a Cadillac moment that occures when the brand base enters the nursing home. Have you ever seen a young guy on a Harley? I wandered into a dealership to look at a Firebolt(they didn't have any) and what I found was a trailer trash boutique with gals sashaying around in retro fifties poor white trash gear. The only thing different was the price tags. Not for the poor! All representive of too much disposable income but with peak oil production here the bubble may burst and the Von Dutch/Harley/NASCAR wretched excess bubble will pop.
Yep, I've seen plenty, including the founder of the largest sportbike site in Chicagoland, and quite a few that frequent the site. Don't kid yourself. Plenty of young guys would like to have a Harley, but can't afford one, or multiple motorcycles. Plus, if Harleys suck so bad, what were you doing in a dealership? I'll bet it was for a hell of a lot more than looking for a Firebolt.
I admit, although I don't "get" the cruiser thing I wouldn't mind owning a V-Rod or a Night Train. I do like the looks of those particular Harley cruisers. But I just wish they didn't cost so much (you can ***** and moan on this board right?). HD obviously know what they are doing up there in Milwaukee because they manage to get a lot of people to pay the ridiculous amount of money OVER the already outrageous (IMHO) MSRP. I guess I will never "deserve" to own a Harley until my attitude changes.
P.S. Buell, take that V-Rod engine and build a bike around it already okay? Thanks.
I don't think anyone at H-D is all that worried. Harley hasn't begun to tap the potential market for its products. Let's not forget, they have nearly limitless resources and have been exceeding sales goals making essentally one kind of bike for years and years. If they put some serious effort into R&D, they could dominate motorcycling across the boards.
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