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Harley-Davidson 4Q Profit Up 9.7 Pct

7585 Views 44 Replies 15 Participants Last post by  The_AirHawk
Sales in Europe up 31.2% for the quarter.

Dang and here I was told that Euros weren't into the whole Americana Biker image. They just want practical standards and sportbikes.

Those Canadians are crazy for HOGS too!
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Don't forget the kpaul safety plan for America

Make that a full-face helmet Racer-boy See my plan to end motorcycle deaths below..

kpaul plan

1. Mandatory full-face helmet law.

2. Mandatory approved riding gear Law

3. Mandatory training every 6 years Law

4. Mandatory testing every 3 years

5. Mandatory motorcycle endorsement to register a bike.

6. AMA sponsored real road training classes.

7. Tiered licensed based on hp,torque, and weight combo..

Preserve the privilege to ride pass the 7 point kpaul plan..
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"Elephants is made outta Rubba'!"
Re: KPaul 4Q Correct Predictions Steady @ 0.0 Pct

Wear black underwear to your job interviews (UNDER your clothes!).

You'll be amazed at the results.

I Sh!t you not!
Re: Don't forget the kpaul safety plan for America

You are a sick SOS. Why don't ya just sign up for your state-provided nanny service?

You won't ever need to make a decison for yourself again. Won't it be nice?
If you Only Knew the Future

Here, let's do a more "realistic" exercise. Why not put something the "common" man might have been willing to "wager" on his Favourite Motor Company, and see what it would have done for us:

Let's take say $500 in November of '87 and toss it into the IPO of Harley Stock, & "Let 'Er Ride".

At $0.4534/share your cash nets you a certificate with ~1102.7 shares of Class "A" common stock - I'll round to no more than two decimals-places from now on, and all Splits and Dividends are re-invested (of course, this is all assuming I can add for sh!te).

For the first three years, Harley didn't do much - not bad, but not "tearin' up the market".

By June of 1990, Harley stock was up to ~$1.76/share, when H-D instigated a 2-for-1 split. Our shares now number 2205.4, with a value of ~$1949.79.

Should we get out yet? That's nearly a fourfold increase in our Investment - but not yet even enough to buy a Sportster 883 (at 1987 prices, even). Let's wait a bit longer, shall we?

Two years later (June '92), H-D has another 2-for-1 split. We now own 4410.8 shares, valued at $6965.97 ($3.16/share, pre-split). - HEY! Howzabout 'Dat Sportster now? We've certainly earned it, waiting five whole years. No? Keep on keepin' on, you say?

OK, if you Insist.

Barely more than a year later, H-D pays-out it's first Dividends - Seven and a Half Mils per Share! (three-quarters of a cent, that is) Our first Dividend Check in July of '93 is a whopping $33.08. It's so small, we tell Harley to just keep it - maybe it'll be worth the Postage to send it to us someday.

But, it's enough to add to our shares - we've "jumped" up to 4417.3: However, H-D stock has come up a bit as well; the value is now $22,431.10! ($5.08/share) Nearly enough for a Custom! Shall we continue, though?

You betcha.

Harley pays-out Dividends, if not regularly, at least fairly often for the next few years:

By the Div-payment in October of ’93 we have 4423.12 shares valued at $25,167.44. ($5.69/share)

By August of ’94 it’s up to a WHOLE PENNY for Dividend-payout – quite a sum, eh? And hey! – we've had another 2-for-1 split in September, with another Dividend in November! If the chart is correct, the price has come back up almost immediately – so now we have 8883.8 shares with a value of $58,988.16. ($6.87/share pre-split) I'm Goin' to Disneyland!

Like any stock, there are dips in the price now and again. '95 was such a year for H-D, but it ends well anyway for us, as there are 4 Dividend-payouts. With reinvestment, we now have 8944.5 shares of stock, with a street-value of $63058.73. ($7.05/share)

For '96, Harley started paying-out Dividends on a Quarterly-basis – in March, June, September, and December. There was also another 2-for-1 Split near the end of September, so we leave '96 with 17,980 shares valued at $208,209.00. ($11.59/share, Dec. '96)

Our Tenth Anniversary is lookin' GOOD. H-D Dividends are up, stock price is up, we close out '97 with 18,085.65 shares valued at $244,337.13 ($13.51/share). This, for a lousy 500-bucks and ten-years of patience.

1998 brings us to 18,165.4 shares with a value of $378,930.24 ($20.86/share). 1999 ends with a BIG Party after a bit of a price-drop-scare, (Get out! SELL! SELL! SELL! The Sky is Falling! Cruiser-Market's Gone South!) with 18,222.28 shares, worth $583,295.18 ($32.01/share).

Why-Too-'Kay brings us another two-fer Split – the last one so far this decade – on April 10. Our shares are now Legion (not the technical definition, but rather the allegorical one) with 36,465.22 shares with a street-value of $725,840.20 ($39.81/share pre-split price). Chickenfeed, I say. (Actually, to ME that means quite a bit – as I'm fairly intimate with the goings-on of the Chicken Feed Business! Chicken Feed – Ain't)

Heck, I'm thinkin 'bout cashin-out right about now, what about you guys? You can't get much more ahead in 13-years than nearly ¾ of a Million Dollars for a 500-clam Investment, eh? I probably spent more money getting' drunk in 1987 than that! And I was only 16 at the time………

Such Predicaments; I must Forge Ahead!

By December of '00, we've got 36,528 shares with a value of a whopping $1,659,467.04 ($45.43/share). This is actually down a bit, from a high of over $1.74M in September of '00. Never fear, '01 brings us three more Dividend Checks (Sep. '01 is omitted from the chart – I don't know if they didn't pay, or just didn't list it – it's calculated as if none were paid) of over $1000.00 each, and 36596.22 shares worth $1,924,229.25 ($52.58/share). '02 has declining values all year-long (GET OUT!! RUN!.... Oh, you know the Drill…….) so we end with a mere 36,696.38 shares worth only $1,695,372.76 ($46.20/share). 2003 Finishes a lackluster 36,857.12 shares valued at only $1,751,818.91 ($47.53/share).

Hey! I've been ripped-off! Gimme my $500 back………

Oh, alright. Harley might as well keep it – it's not like I'm missing it after 16 years.

We close-out '04 with 37,118.88 shares or $2,146,213.64 ($57.82/share). Now, THAT is more like it – we've finally finished a year as multi-millionaires! 2005 sees a bit of slippage: we've grown to 37,562.2 shares, but dropped to $2,023,100.09 ($53.86/share) after some "exciting" market-fluctuations. Now I know why everybody jumped off the top of buildings on Black Monday (because they were stoopid!). If you really want to know – do the Math yerself!

2006 concludes this little word-problem with 38,089.58 shares, worth a cool $2,684,172.70 ($70.47/share).

I think I'll cash-out, retire, and buy Ducati………

There you have it - what $500 COULD have done for you - if only you'd known.

I leave you all with a bit of advice: Buy Harley Stock (NYSE Ticker: HOG), forget what you think about the Motor Company or the bikes it manufactures, or the people it attracts. It's not over 'til it's over - and I'd say there's still a LOT of growth left in the Marketplace.

If nothing else, you're unlikely to lose anything - but look what you stand to gain.

(keep in mind, I'm nothing but an Idiot - I'm not an Analyst, I'm not a Genius - I'm a feckin' HiSkule Dropout. But even I can hear the Thunder echo from the wall)
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