It's the same old song...
Fortunately, the wholesale carnage that some expect after a helmet law is repealed doesn't occur. Though for the worse, the change is much less serious than predicted.
The most recent example is Florida, which repealed its helmet law effective July 1, 2000. News media and some motorcycle forums on the net anticipated a bloodbath. Didn't happen. Here are the actual Florida motorcycle deaths:
Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Total
------- ------- -----
1999 87 91 178
2000 124 135* 259
2001 143* 144* 287 *post-repeal
To be sure, deaths increased significantly from 1999 to 2000. But much of the increase occurred in January through June, before the law was repealed. Likewise, much of the increase from 2000 to 2001 occurred in July through December, following repeal. Certainly some of the increase was due to decreased helmet use, but Florida was also experiencing a motorcycling boom (as did the rest of the US in 2000), and the casualty count reflects that as well. Interestingly, fatalities in March 2001, which included the first post-repeal Bike Week, actually dropped to 23 from 29 the previous year.
An extensive study of repeal effects can be found in the NHTSA publication, Evaluation of Motorcycle Helmet Law Repeal in Texas and Arkansas. Fatality rate (per registered motorcycle) dropped in Arkansas after repeal and increased somewhat in Texas (but note wild registration count fluctuations). However, the Texas analysis also shows that "the proportion of treated motorcyclists with traumatic brain injuries increased and treatment costs for traumatic brain injury cases increased substantially following the law change."
While it should be crystal clear to anyone who ridesand especially to anyone who's ever crashedthat it's better to crash with a helmet on than without one, I think we tend to overestimate their effectiveness when extrapolating to the riding population. A relatively small increase in safety can be vital to an individual, but still not amount to much when multiplied by the size of the population. And, there are plenty of ways to get hurt or killed on a motorcycle even with a helmet.
[data from the FARS query facility and other resources at the NHTSA website]
Fortunately, the wholesale carnage that some expect after a helmet law is repealed doesn't occur. Though for the worse, the change is much less serious than predicted.
The most recent example is Florida, which repealed its helmet law effective July 1, 2000. News media and some motorcycle forums on the net anticipated a bloodbath. Didn't happen. Here are the actual Florida motorcycle deaths:
Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Total
------- ------- -----
1999 87 91 178
2000 124 135* 259
2001 143* 144* 287 *post-repeal
To be sure, deaths increased significantly from 1999 to 2000. But much of the increase occurred in January through June, before the law was repealed. Likewise, much of the increase from 2000 to 2001 occurred in July through December, following repeal. Certainly some of the increase was due to decreased helmet use, but Florida was also experiencing a motorcycling boom (as did the rest of the US in 2000), and the casualty count reflects that as well. Interestingly, fatalities in March 2001, which included the first post-repeal Bike Week, actually dropped to 23 from 29 the previous year.
An extensive study of repeal effects can be found in the NHTSA publication, Evaluation of Motorcycle Helmet Law Repeal in Texas and Arkansas. Fatality rate (per registered motorcycle) dropped in Arkansas after repeal and increased somewhat in Texas (but note wild registration count fluctuations). However, the Texas analysis also shows that "the proportion of treated motorcyclists with traumatic brain injuries increased and treatment costs for traumatic brain injury cases increased substantially following the law change."
While it should be crystal clear to anyone who ridesand especially to anyone who's ever crashedthat it's better to crash with a helmet on than without one, I think we tend to overestimate their effectiveness when extrapolating to the riding population. A relatively small increase in safety can be vital to an individual, but still not amount to much when multiplied by the size of the population. And, there are plenty of ways to get hurt or killed on a motorcycle even with a helmet.
[data from the FARS query facility and other resources at the NHTSA website]