I'd love to see Ducati win, but I'm afraid this track is a little to corner intensive, for the Ducati's to keep the tires healthy over an entire race distance. I think you'll probably see a Ducati on or next to the pole though.
Yes, they do provide good info, but they left out a key fact about the Jerez circuit. When it rains there, the white lines get slippery, and there are concrete walls within highside distance of the track. That's where and how Mick Doohan ended his carreer.
I suspect you are right; however, I do believe that Ducati did extensive race simulation testing here in the offseason so probably have a better idea of compound selection and tire management than at Phakisa where they had never been previously.
I am not gonna bet any money on them, but this is probably their best shot at it for the early season.